USC’s 78–76 Exhibition Win Over Cal: The Numbers Behind the Score

By CeCe | USC Women’s Basketball Media Lab

The No. 3 USC women's basketball team opened its exhibition schedule with a 78–76 victory over California on Sunday, October 25, at the Galen Center. While the narrow margin generated plenty of discussion about a team entering the season with championship expectations, I believe the more important story is what USC learned from playing a competitive opponent. I've always maintained that exhibition games should challenge teams. Winning by 40 or 50 points might look impressive on paper, but how much does a team really learn if it isn't being forced to execute, make adjustments, or respond to adversity? Cal entered this matchup having already faced UCLA, losing 87–53 on October 14. The Golden Bears had an opportunity to evaluate that performance, make adjustments, and prepare for USC. Their improvement was evident, and they deserve credit for competing. However, looking beyond the final score, several statistics and lineup combinations stood out in USC's first exhibition.

Defensive pressure and transition offense were two of USC's biggest strengths. The Trojans recorded 14 steals, forced 18 turnovers, and converted those opportunities into 18 points. Even more impressive was USC's 25–2 advantage in fast-break points. That 23-point difference demonstrates how effective this team can be when its defensive pressure creates offensive opportunities. USC also controlled the paint offensively, outscoring Cal 46–28 and converting 16 of 26 attempts at the rim for 61.5%. Despite shooting 42.3% overall, the Trojans found ways to generate offense through transition opportunities, interior scoring, and the free-throw line, where they converted 15 of 17 attempts. Those numbers reveal a team capable of producing offense even when its perimeter shots aren't falling.

Freshman Saniyah Hall was one of the most impressive players on the floor, finishing with 23 points, six rebounds, and five steals while shooting 9-of-13 from the field. She also connected on two of her three attempts from beyond the arc and finished with a plus-9 rating. Her offensive efficiency was impressive, but what stood out to me was her ability to impact the game defensively. Hall's five steals helped fuel USC's transition offense, and she demonstrated the ability to score without needing every possession designed around her. JuJu Watkins, returning to game action after a lengthy absence, contributed 18 points, three steals, and two blocks in just 23 minutes. Considering her minutes restriction, this was an opportunity for Watkins to regain her rhythm while developing chemistry with a roster that looks considerably different from the last time she competed. Jazzy Davidson added 18 points, seven assists, and six rebounds. Although Davidson shot 7-of-18 from the field, her playmaking was particularly valuable. Her seven assists accounted for nearly 39% of USC's total assists, an indication of how important her decision-making will be as the Trojans continue developing their offensive chemistry.

Two statistical categories that deserve attention are rebounding and perimeter shooting. Cal outrebounded USC 45–39, including a 19–13 advantage on the offensive glass. The Golden Bears converted those opportunities into 17 second-chance points compared with just six for USC. That's an 11-point difference in second-chance scoring in a game decided by two points. One statistic from the CBB Analytics report that caught my attention was Cal collecting seven offensive rebounds on 13 available opportunities following missed above-the-break three-pointers. To me, that points toward positioning, floor balance, and players understanding their rebounding responsibilities. I don't view this as a significant concern after one exhibition, particularly with so many players learning to operate alongside one another. USC's perimeter shooting also struggled, as the Trojans connected on just 3 of 15 three-point attempts (20%), while Cal made 9 of 26 (34.6%). That gave Cal an 18-point advantage from beyond the arc. However, shooting percentages fluctuate, and one poor shooting performance isn't enough to establish a trend. What matters more is whether USC generated quality looks and whether its offensive spacing created the opportunities the coaching staff wanted. Those are questions that can be answered through film evaluation.

Perhaps one of the most interesting parts of the CBB Analytics report was the lineup flow. USC experimented with several combinations, and a few provided encouraging results. The starting group of Kennedy Smith, Jazzy Davidson, Saniyah Hall, JuJu Watkins, and Sara Okeke produced an 11–8 advantage during the opening 4:11 of the third quarter, finishing that stretch plus-3. Interestingly, that same unit had played Cal evenly, 4–4, during the opening 3:22 of the first quarter. Another combination featuring Ryann Bennett, Kennedy Smith, Jazzy Davidson, Sitaya Fagan, and Pania Davis produced nine points while allowing five during a 3:17 stretch in the third quarter. That group finished plus-4 while recording three assists and six rebounds. What's interesting is that the same combination struggled during an earlier second-quarter appearance. This is precisely why exhibition games are valuable. Coaches can evaluate how different personnel combinations perform, determine which groups complement one another, and identify adjustments that need to be made before the regular season.

One lineup that particularly caught my attention featured Ryann Bennett, Kennedy Smith, Jazzy Davidson, Saniyah Hall, and Laura Williams. From the 1:54 mark of the fourth quarter until 17 seconds remained, this group held Cal scoreless while producing two points. During that stretch, Cal missed all seven of its field-goal attempts. Williams provided an important defensive presence, finishing with three blocks and six rebounds in approximately 13 minutes. That defensive sequence was especially encouraging because USC was able to execute without Watkins on the floor. It provided another look at a combination capable of defending during critical possessions. These lineup results are not definitive conclusions about USC's best five players, given the limited minutes involved, but they provide valuable information about personnel combinations and how different groups performed under game conditions.

When I look at the overall performance, USC scored 78 points despite making only three perimeter shots. The Trojans generated 25 fast-break points, recorded 14 steals, scored 46 points in the paint, and received strong contributions from Hall, Watkins, and Davidson. At the same time, Cal exposed areas that will require attention, particularly rebounding positioning, limiting second-chance opportunities, and establishing greater consistency in half-court execution. Coach Lindsay Gottlieb now has valuable film to evaluate, including lineup combinations, defensive assignments, floor spacing, and how players responded when Cal made its runs. There are adjustments to make, but that's what this stage of the season is for. I'm not concerned about USC winning by only two points. I'm more interested in how much better this team becomes because of what it learned. The goal isn't to look perfect in October. The goal is to develop the chemistry, execution, and consistency needed to compete at the highest level when the games matter most. And from that perspective, this was a valuable first step.

Game Photos: You can also view photos from USC's exhibition matchup against Cal by visiting the Photos tab on USC Women's Basketball Media Lab or clicking the photo gallery link below.

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